Betting Guide

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English Premier League Betting Guide 2009/2010: 25th September 2009

Below I have listed the Premiership teams in the order I believe they will finish. With it I have also summarized why they will finish in their respective places and any relevant bets/players that you should be aware of for each of the teams in the coming season.

I feel the Premiership is undoubtedly stronger and more competitive than last season within the top 10 anyway, with the top 3 just as strong, Arsenal with slight improvement and substantial improvement at Man City, Spurs, Sunderland than last season All this means that I believe the “big four” will lose more games this season as the quality has improved.

I even think the promoted teams will give a good account of themselves on the whole as they all have to some degree good strikers who can score goals, which I believe is the most important aspect in determining whether a team stays up or not.

Premiership Winner: Manchester United

For a more detailed overview of why Man U will win a record 4th successive Prem :then add link to my top 4 article. Another reason Man U will win the league is the fact they have the best squad depth of any top 4 team. With many options and variations available in how the team can play. I believe they will need Owen to play as many games as possible as he offers another dimension that compliments Rooney and Berbatov’s preference (link to Berbatov article) for dropping deep and creating chances for others.

Without Owen teams can push the defence up and know the strikers won’t go beyond them. Whereas if Owen plays teams will have to contain Rooney or Berbatov deep aswell as Owen running in-behind, which is much more unpredictable and harder to defend against.

Nani will become the player that justifies his transfer fee. He has all the raw skill and attributes needed to be a top winger, flair, powerful shot, trickery, can spot a pass. It’s just a case of nurturing that talent, which I think Sir Alex will this season.

Fortunately for Man United Berbatov looks to have that spark back, sharper and fitter than ever, and Owen adds another predatory dimension from the bench if it is needed. I feel Rooney will excel now Ronaldo has departed and the general play/crosses from the wingers can focus more on his talents aswell as Berbatov's. Man United only gathered a measly 2 points against the big four last season, meaning as long as they beat the supposed lesser teams, they won’t be missing you know enough to warrant being 2nd place.

2nd Place: Chelsea

Chelsea will compete, but I do-not believe Ancelotti will have enough about him to win the league in his first season. His recent record at AC Milan will not fill Chelsea fans with optimism either, seeing as he has not won anything for two seasons (Champions League 06/07) and failed to win the Italian Serie A in the last 6 years!

The bookies have Chelsea down as favourites but I am convinced they are way off the mark and he’s why, the diamond formation makes Lampard considerably less effective as a goal scoring/creating threat, and as he was pivotal to Chelsea’s success within the 433 tactic used under Morinho, Hiddink, Grant and Scolari. At times the diamond midfield seems too congested and intricate which could be Chelseas’s eventual downfall once teams realise know best to combat it.

Chelsea may not have improved the squad depth enough, this is highlighted even further when you take into account Chelsea have considerably the largest contingent of African players of all the title contenders. With Drogba, Essien and Essien’s potential replacement Mikel all scheduled to take part in the African Nation’s Cup in January. Also any injury to Drogba in particular could spell big problems as Chelsea are so reliant on his hold up play, and they have no player who can replicate his game.

3rd Place: Liverpool

I feel Liverpool will run United very close as they did last season, although their complete lack of strength in-depth would worry me if I were a Liverpool fan. As long as Gerrard and Torres stay relatively injury free, as those two are absolutely crucial to Liverpool’s results and style of play, they should compete.

I feel Alonso is the biggest omission though, Benitez should have made him feel more welcome, instead he tried to replace him with an inferior player in Gareth Barry. Alonso is one of the best passers and technicians of a football in the World game and it’s an absolute crime Liverpool have discarded him. Although Aquilani is an able replacement, he’s not quite on Alonso’s level and offers a different style of play. Benayoun is the player who needs to start games in-order to nullify the absence of Alonso’s creativity.

Liverpool are notoriously tight defensively (well with the exception of a few freak games last season and this) and it is worth noting they only lost 2 away games last season (including an away defeat to Middlesbrough and just like this season Spurs).

Last season they also drew a lot of games to the lesser teams home and away which I think they will improve upon and eradicate with the added attacking option of Johnson and the more apparent creative influence of Benayoun. Which should cancel out their faltering start to this season.

Another fact for potential bets is Liverpool scored more goals in the last 5 minutes than any other team last season, so they may be good bets again for late goals.

4th Arsenal

Arsenal will be all fur coat and no kickers as always! They can pass, pass and pass all day which is pretty on the eye but they need better finishers upfront, Without goals, they are just passing for passing’s sake, pleasing themselves and without an end product it’s self gratification, and without penetration it’s just masturbation. Although they have had a great start to the season this well known problem will arise again. Defensively they still haven’t got that defensive holding midfielder position allocated, which could see them continue to have a soft centre for conceding all too many goals.

5th Tottenham

Spurs have the potential advantage of no European distractions unlike the majority of the other teams fighting with them for the top 6, meaning fresher players come the tail-end of the season and importantly the hugely influential King is able to play more games without missing too many midweek fixtures.

Add to this fact the amazing depth Spurs have when everyone is injury free with a potential starting line-up of:

GK: Gomes

RB: Corluka

LB: Ekotto

CB: King

CB: Woodgate

RM: Lennon

CM: Huddlestone

CM: Palacios

LM: Modric

ST: Defoe

ST: Crouch

SUBS: Keane, Bentley, Kranjcar, Bale, Giovani Dos Santos, Pavlychenko, Dawson, Bassong, Jenas, Cudicini, Hutton.

Not many clubs (if any) have that sort of staggering depth to call upon from the bench. Spur’s had an amazing home form last season with a club Premiership record of 12 home clean sheets. If they continue the form they had since Redknapp took over they are definitely on for 5th. Harry Redknapp is looking to adopt a very familiar style of play as he reunions his old Portsmouth trio of the big man-little man strike-pairing of Crouch & Defoe and Croatian playmaker Kranjcar. Adding these quality additions to an already strong Spur’s team makes them real contenders for 5th place.

6th Manchester City

I think a great bet to be had is betting on Man City to not be top 4 as the bookies are heavily backing them to be within the Champions League places. Man City were appalling away last season only winning 2 games, and even with all the new big name signings and great start to the season, I can see the wheels spinning off. As good as the team has been offensively, the defence looks very shaky indeed. They look just as likely to concede as score in the majority of the games this season and I think their luck will run-out. Although I am sure they will hammer alot of teams into submission at Eastlands, I’m not sure their away form/defence will hold-up under the pressure in those big away matches. Once Robinho gets back into the team, he is the ideal candidate for 1st goal scorer bets as he scored 1st 6 times last season.

7th Everton

Lescott eventually departed meaning they’ve lost a solid central defender. Who I don’t believe they have replaced with someone of the same quality or reliability in Heitinga. Obviously Everton had a consistent season in 08/09 finishing a very respectable 5th, although after the summer spending I think Spurs & Man City have now overtaken them in-terms of quality and depth. Meaning Everton will finish 7th at best. For all their graft and resilience I don’t believe Everton possess enough goal scoring threat and invention in attack in order to unlock the best Premiership defences and their best striker Saha is too injury prone.

8th Aston Villa

Villa are a noticeably inferior team without club captain and pivotal playmaker Gareth Barry, aswell as the loss of central defender Martin Laursen to injury. Having said that they still have their pace upfront will still cause teams problems especially away from home as was evident last season add away stats from last season. As they are indefinitely a poorer team than last season I see no way they can obtain higher than 8th, because while Villa have lost key players, the other teams around them have strengthened considerably. I’m not sure Villa can compete top 6 without abandoning O’Neil’s buy British philosophy. They need foreign stars mixed with those dependable British players already established.

9th Sunderland

The bet to have is on Bent being the highest scoring English striker or if you’re lucky maybe even outside bet for top Premiership scorer overall! Many fans and critics hugely underrate Bent in my opinion as yes his game is limited technically but he has pace, is decent in the air and scores goals for fun! The stat that impresses me most about him is the fact he scored 19 goals in his 2 seasons at relegation fodder Charlton. Any striker who can score that many goals for a relegated Premiership team is a quality striker in my book. He was also the top scorer at Spur last season despite the fact he was largely the 3rd choice striker and primarily made appearances off the bench. Bruce has bought very well, taking full advantage of the large transfer kitty afforded to him by the new Sunderland owners. Sunderland have added some definite crunch into the heart of their side by signing two battling/tough tackling players in former Marseille captain Cana and Cattermole. Which should help them on tough away games throughout the season. The strikers will be receiving great service from midfielders Malbranque (near top of assists chart last season with 9), Reid and Richardson, aswell as the highly talented Sunderland youngster Henderson. The defence has also been bolstered with arguably Hull’s best player last season Turner, aswell as other quality additions.

10th Fulham

Will struggle to replicate their resilient home form from last season and may suffer from the fact they are perhaps over stretching themselves with the added focus on European football on an already small squad. I feel they have treaded water somewhat with their transfers in when compared to many of the Premiership clubs they are competing against, and they still don’t have a striker that can be relied upon to get a goal tally, as Zamora and Johnson have never been consistent.

11th West Ham

Few striking options but Zola has employed a neat tidy playing style that is tough to beat at home, seems to be giving a lot of West Ham’s youth players sustained playing time to counteract the restrictions he has in terms of transfer money. A massive influence on where West Ham finish depends on how Cole does upfront, as he is almost solely relied upon to get regular goals. Making him the ideal bet for anytime/1st goal scorer bets.

12th Wigan

Bruce will be a big miss as he done a very commendable job at Wigan and had a knack for picking up unknown foreign players for a pittance and turning them into solid Premiership players. Having bought and lost Valencia, Palacios, Zaki, Figeroa. Martinez will struggle to replace the quality offered by the aforementioned players Bruce recruited, but he does seem to have the ability to make average players play very eye catching effective football himself, as he showed at his previous club Swansea. He has made a fairly impressive start to the season, and think he will be a great addition to the Premiership managers roster. His Wigan team seemed to have adopted Swansea’s playing style and I think they will be a very attractive and comfortable team within The Premiership.

13th Bolton

Bolton haven't added any big names during pre-season but were a steady dependable team last season with a very good candidate for 1st/anytime scorer bets in Matt Taylor (10 goals last season). Bolton lost as many home games as they won last season (7 each). I’ve been very impressed by their new South Korean midfielder, who seems very neat technically and has the vision and flair to create chances, which is something Bolton has lacked since Okocha departed.

14th Burnley

To stay in the Premiership you need a striker you can rely upon to score you a decent amount of goals, luckily Burnley have potentially the best strikers of any of the newly promoted teams on paper. They do also have some very impressive creative players who are definitely Premiership quality in Wade Elliot and Robbie Blake. I see them doing a Stoke this season and staying in The Premiership thanks to their consistent home form. Which is fortunate as their away performances so far have been appalling!

15th Stoke City

Outstanding home record add actual stats that helped them maintain their Premiership status with the aid of Delap’s rocket launcher. The mid-season addition of Beattie and regular starting place for Liam Lawrence were major factors in adding more goal threat to their physical, no nonsense approach. They have also signed some excellent players this season to compliment their physical players from last season and I seem them doing just aswell as last season.

16th Blackburn

Blackburn may not have caught the imagination with their transfer dealings, but still have good players particularly Dunn who is very creative and offers a much needed goal threat, if he can stay injury free. Aswell as Pedersen who is very consistent from the left and takes a great set piece. Blackburn may have sold Santa Cruz, so you could say they have been weakened in that respect but he is extremely injury prone and has only scored more than 10 goals in 1 season throughout his whole career. So I believe Blackburn have performed daylight robbery selling him to City for such a high transfer fee. Fortunately they still have McCarthy and Roberts upfront who are good strikers.

17th Birmingham

Had the tightest defence within The Championship last season, but obviously The Premiership is on a whole other level. Add that to the fact they were relatively low scorers compared to the rest of The Championship promotion chasers last season and it’s going to be a tough season. Benitez is one player that I believe will be a surprise package for Birmingham he's a pacy small player with flair, good technique and dribbling ability. Who regularly stars for his national team Ecuador against South America's finest so he shouldn't be overshadowed by the big occasion here.

18th Hull City

Hull went into free-fall during the 2nd half of last season, and I think they will continue that trend for the most part of this season as teams have quite obviously found out their players. This often happens with newly promoted teams, they play well for a period with the advantage teams don’t know how to play against them. Although Hull may improve based upon their key new signings USA international striker Jozy Altidore, Dutch target man Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink, aswell as midfielders Bullard and Stephen Hunt Hull have lost influential defender Michael Turner, which is obviously a huge omission as not only was he a solid defender, but he was also a goal threat on attacking set pieces.

19th Wolves

If Wolves are to stay up Ebanks-Blake is going to have to perform aswell as his 2 previous seasons at Wolves where he was the top scorer in The Championship. He will be helped by new signing Doyle who performed well when last in The Premiership for Reading. In terms of defence new Chelsea loan signing Mancienne is a great talent for the England U-21’s but just like rest of the Wolves defensive unit I see him as too inexperienced for a relegation battle in The Premiership. In Wolves favour they have some exciting wingers in Kightly and but with their defensive frailties, and manager McCarthy’s poor Premiership record with previous club Sunderland, I think Wolves are sure bets for relegation.

20th Portsmouth

Have obviously lost almost a whole team’s worth of quality players and been unable to recoup the transfer fees because of their overhanging debt they owe. They have lost pretty much all their good players, they look a mish-mash of a team with so many players arriving in/out. I can’t see them ever regaining any form and they were close for relegation last season add in actual points away from relegation, when they had considerably better calibre of players then they do now, so it all points to relegation. Manager Paul Hart does not have the quality or experience to avoid relegation.